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KMID : 0380620100420030373
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Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
2010 Volume.42 No. 3 p.373 ~ p.376
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Statistical Probability Analysis of Storage Temperatures of Domestic Refrigerator as a Risk Factor of Foodborne Illness Outbreak
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Bahk Gyung-Jin
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Abstract
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The objective of this study was to present the proper probability distribution model based on the data obtained from surveys on domestic refrigerator food storage temperatures in home. Domestic refrigerator temperatures were determined as risk factors in foodborne disease outbreaks for microbial risk assessment (MRA). The temperature was measured by directly visiting 139 homes using a data logger from May to September of 2009. The overall mean temperature for all the refrigerators in the survey was 3.53±2.96oC, with 23.6% of the refrigerators measuring above 5oC. Probability distributions were also created using @RISK program based on the measured temperature data. Statistical ranking was determined by the goodness of fit (GOF, i.e., the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or Anderson-Darling (AD) test) to determine the proper probability distribution model. This result showed that the LogLogistic (-10.407, 13.616, 8.6107) distribution was found to be the most appropriate for the MRA model. The results of this study might be directly used as input variables in exposure evaluation for conducting MRA.
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KEYWORD
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MRA (microbial risk assessment), probability statistics, food storage, domestic refrigerator, temperature
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